![\"IMG_5369\"](\"http:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/files\/2015\/10\/IMG_5369.jpg\")
<\/a>Last week, Islanders were rudely awoken to the early arrival of snow with almost three centimetres (cm) measured at the Charlottetown airport. This signals the time for our annual winter weather predictions. A great hesitation hangs in the air as no-one predicted last winter\u2019s record breaking snowfall of 551 cm. The Canadian Farmers\u2019 Almanac deserves some congratulations as they predicted a colder and snowier winter than normal. But no-one had the audacity to predict a winter with 12 cm more than the previous record set in 1972. I have heard gossip around town about another record winter ahead just as severe as last year. Well, here is what the experts say.<\/p>\nNormally, a PEI winter (the months of December, January and February) averages -6 degrees Celsius and receives about 197 cm of snow and 122 millimetres of rain. Environment Canada uses climate models to forecast seasonal weather. Climate models are mathematical equations strung together that describe the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere. These equations are calculated using the largest computers in the country, known as supercomputers. Environment Canada forecasts the winter of 2016 (January, February, March) to be above normal or \u201cwarmer and wetter\u201d. I must mention, however, that Environment Canada\u2019s seasonal forecast models are accurate for Prince Edward Island only 40-50% of the time (which is not significantly better than chance, meaning flip a coin and you\u2019ll have the same odds of getting the forecast correct). Environment Canada\u2019s seasonal forecasts are accurate in Northern Quebec, the southern Yukon and Baffin Island, but here on PEI, not so well.<\/p>\n
We all know people who swear by almanacs when forecasting the seasonal weather, so I took a look at three of them. The 2016 Canadian Farmers Almanac forecasts the winter of 2016 as \u201cbitter cold and snowy\u201d; the 2016 Harrowsmith\u2019s Canadian Almanac says the winter of 2016 will be \u201csnowier and wetter than normal\u201d and temperatures \u201caround normal\u201d. The 2016 Old Farmer\u2019s Almanac, the one we are most familiar with as it has been forecasting seasonal weather since its first issue in 1792 (the time of George Washington\u2019s presidency), uses a \u201csecret formula\u201d kept tucked away in a black tin box at the Almanac offices in Dublin, New Hampshire. The Old Farmer\u2019s Almanac makes claims of 80% accuracy of their results, but studies of their forecasts show no better over the long-term than about 50%. The Old Farmer\u2019s Almanac forecasts the PEI winter climate of 2016 to be \u201cwarmer than normal\u201d and \u201cdrier than normal\u201d.<\/p>\n
Dr. James Kinter, a leading climate scientist from George Mason University in the United States, was visiting PEI this past summer and predicted colder than normal temperatures this winter for PEI but less precipitation (rain and snow). Dr. Kinter based his predictions on the effects of a strong El Nino, that is, a temporary change of climate that happens every few years when winds shift in the Pacific Ocean along the equator, warming the water more than usual. These El Nino events trigger changing weather patterns globally.<\/p>\n
My own research at the University of Prince Edward Island that examined over 140 years of weather observations in Charlottetown has shown that the climate has definitely gotten warmer and drier, especially over the past 10-15 years or so. And that\u2019s where I put my forecast for the winter of 2015 \u2013 to continue the trend and be \u201cwarmer and drier\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u00a0Climate is variable, though \u2013 it goes up and down. Climate is nature\u2019s merry-go-round so it is often difficult to predict the coming season even with supercomputers, secret formulas or historical trends. To emphasize this point, one of my graduate students, Eric Gilbert, flipped coins to see what Lady Fortune\u2019s forecast for the winter of 2016 will be \u2013 the result being \u201ccolder and drier\u201d. So there are many forecasts made but only one will be correct. Predictions are split down the middle as to whether the winter of 2016 will be warmer or colder, but the majority are for a drier or less snowier than normal winter for PEI. I can support the \u201cless snowier\u201d part of those predictions, but we\u2019ll have to wait a few months to see who is right.<\/p>\n
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