{"id":2627,"date":"2022-11-17T01:52:28","date_gmt":"2022-11-17T01:52:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/?p=2627"},"modified":"2022-11-17T01:52:29","modified_gmt":"2022-11-17T01:52:29","slug":"weather-predictions-for-peis-2022-23-winter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/2022\/11\/17\/weather-predictions-for-peis-2022-23-winter\/","title":{"rendered":"Weather Predictions for PEI\u2019s 2022-23 Winter"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Dr. Adam Fenech and Dr. Xander Wang<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the Bank of Canada warns Canadians to brace for a rough economic winter, Islanders are also asking what the weather will be like this winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Environment Canada uses climate models to forecast seasonal weather. Climate models are mathematical equations strung together that describe the chemistry and physics of the Earth\u2019s climate system. These equations are calculated using the largest computers in the country, known as supercomputers. Environment Canada forecast average temperatures for the coming winter (December, January, February) for PEI to be \u201cabove normal,\u201d with precipitation (snow and rain) \u201cnormal\u201d for the Island.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We all know people who swear by almanacs when forecasting the seasonal weather, so we took a look at the predictions from two of them. The 2023 Harrowsmith\u2019s Almanac<\/em> says the winter will \u201cclose to normal\u201d when it comes to temperature but precipitation should be slightly \u201cabove normal\u201d with many storms. The 2023 Old Farmer\u2019s Almanac<\/em> has forecast the PEI winter climate this year to be \u201cabove average\u201d temperatures and precipitation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our own research at the University of Prince Edward Island\u2019s Climate Lab examining 150 years of weather observations in Charlottetown has shown that the climate has definitely become warmer and drier, especially over the past 10-15 years or so. And that\u2019s where we put our forecast each winter \u2013 to continue the trend and be \u201cwarmer and drier\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This inability to forecast seasons accurately is because the year-to-year climate is variable \u2013 it goes up and down. Climate is nature\u2019s merry-go-round so it is often difficult to predict the coming season even with supercomputers, secret formulas or historical trends. To emphasize this point, we flipped coins to see what Lady Fortune\u2019s forecast for the winter will be \u2013 the result being \u201cwarmer and wetter\u201d. So there are many forecasts made but only one will be correct.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2022-23 Prince Edward Island Winter Weather Predictions<\/u><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Source<\/strong><\/td>Temperature<\/strong><\/td>Precipitation (rain and snow)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
UPEI Climate Lab<\/td>warmer (+)<\/td>drier (-)<\/td><\/tr>
Environment Canada<\/td>warmer (+)<\/td>normal (=)<\/td><\/tr>
Harrowsmith\u2019s Almanac<\/td>normal (=)<\/td>wetter (+)<\/td><\/tr>
Old Farmer\u2019s Almanac<\/td>warmer (+)<\/td>wetter (+)<\/td><\/tr>
Chance (Flip a coin)<\/td>warmer (+)<\/td>wetter (+)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n


There is a consensus among the many sources pointing to normal or warmer Winter temperatures this year, but no agreement on the precipitation, although the majority points to a wetter Winter than normal. Over the past ten years of predictions, no one of these sources have been \u201cbang on\u201d in predicting the winter climate \u2013 the best has been following the long-term climate trends of \u201cwarmer and drier\u201d but this only worked five out of the past ten years, and really missed the Island\u2019s savage winter of 2015. Normally, a PEI winter (the months of December, January and February) averages -6 degrees Celsius and receives about 303 millimetres of precipitation, that\u2019s rain or snow. The 2020-21 Winter was warmer than normal (-2.75 degrees Celsius, or 3.25 degrees warmer) and wetter than normal (407 millimetres, or about 34 percent wetter than normal). This matched the predictions of the Harrowsmith\u2019s Almanac <\/em>and the Old Farmer\u2019s Almanac; <\/em>and for the first time in ten years,the flipped coins were correct.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Dr. Adam Fenech and Dr. Xander Wang As the Bank of Canada warns Canadians to brace for a rough economic winter, Islanders are also asking what the weather will be like this winter. Environment Canada uses climate models to … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2627"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2627"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2627\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2628,"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2627\/revisions\/2628"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2627"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2627"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2627"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}