{"id":688,"date":"2014-06-09T18:56:36","date_gmt":"2014-06-09T18:56:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/?p=688"},"modified":"2017-02-15T19:02:21","modified_gmt":"2017-02-15T19:02:21","slug":"weather-predictions-for-pei-summer-2014","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/2014\/06\/09\/weather-predictions-for-pei-summer-2014\/","title":{"rendered":"Weather Predictions for PEI Summer 2014"},"content":{"rendered":"

Headlines across the country have been saying that Prince Edward Island is in for a typical run-of-the-mill summer this year. Normally, a PEI summer (the months of June, July and August) averages 17.4 degrees Celsius and receives about 28 cm of rain. This represents the \u201cclimate normal\u201d or the average of 30 years of data, in this case the most recent climate normal titled 1981-2010. \u00a0Last year\u2019s summer (2013) was 0.5 degrees Celsius warmer than \u201cnormal\u201d, and 30 percent drier than \u201cnormal\u201d. But what about this year?<\/p>\n

The Weather Network has stated that: \u201cWe don\u2019t expect an especially hot summer\u201d in 2014. Environment Canada agrees. Using climate models, that is, mathematical equations of the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere strung together and calculated using the largest computers in the country (known as supercomputers) to forecast seasonal weather, Environment Canada forecasts the summer of 2014 to be \u201cnormal\u201d or no change from the climate normal above. I must mention, however, that Environment Canada\u2019s seasonal forecast models are accurate for Prince Edward Island only 40-50% of the time (which is not significantly better than chance, meaning flip a coin and you\u2019ll have the same odds of getting the forecast correct). Environment Canada\u2019s seasonal forecasts are accurate in Northern Quebec, the southern Yukon and Baffin Island; but here on PEI, not so much.<\/p>\n

We all know people who swear by the Old Farmer\u2019s Almanac when forecasting the seasonal weather, as it has been forecasting seasonal weather since its first issue in 1792 (the time of George Washington\u2019s presidency) using \u00a0a \u201csecret formula\u201d kept tucked away in a black tin box at the Almanac offices in Dublin, New Hampshire. The Old Farmer\u2019s Almanac makes claims of 80% accuracy of their results, but studies of their forecasts show no better over the long-term than about 50%. The Old Farmer\u2019s Almanac forecasts the summer climate of 2014 to be \u201cwarmer than normal, with the hottest periods in early to mid-July, mid- to late July, and mid- to late August. Rainfall will be above normal.\u201d So warmer and wetter.<\/p>\n

My own research at UPEI that examined 140 years of weather observations here in Charlottetown has shown that the climate has definitely gotten warmer and drier, especially over the past 15 years or so. And that\u2019s where I put my forecast for the summer of 2014 \u2013 to continue the trend and be \u201cwarmer and drier\u201d.<\/p>\n

Climate is variable, though \u2013 it goes up and down. Climate is nature\u2019s merry-go-round so it is often difficult to predict the coming season even with supercomputers, secret formulas or historical trends. To emphasize this point, I asked my newest Climate Lab employee, former drummer from Charlottetown indie rock band Two Hours Traffic<\/em> Derek Ellis, to flip coins to see what Lady Fortune\u2019s forecast for the summer of 2014 would be \u2013 the result being \u201ccolder and wetter\u201d. Derek is bound to be unpopular if he is correct.<\/p>\n

\"Derek<\/a><\/p>\n

So to recap, the Weather Network and Environment Canada say that the summer of 2014 will be \u201cnormal\u201d; the Old Farmer\u2019s Almanac says \u201cwarmer and wetter\u201d; I say \u201cwarmer and drier\u201d; \u00a0and the coin-flipper, Derek Ellis, says \u201ccolder and wetter\u201d. Who will be correct? We will have to wait about 90 days and see.<\/p>\n

Notes:<\/p>\n

. Both temperatures and precipitation were below normal for the month of May 2014 with temperatures almost 1.5 degrees Celsius colder than normal (I hear a collective \u201cno kidding!\u201d), and precipitation about 20 percent less than normal.<\/p>\n

. CLIVE, the Climate Lab\u2019s visualization tool of sea level rise and coastal erosion, will be touring to 10 communities across PEI in July to view local areas that may be impacted, and to share ideas on how to best address the risk. See upei.ca\/climate for full details.<\/p>\n

. Remember the 2015 PEI Weather Trivia Calendar can still be purchased at peiweathercalendar.ca or at your local Murphy\u2019s Pharmacy.<\/p>\n

Questions? Contact Adam Fenech at afenech@upei.ca or (902) 620-5220<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Headlines across the country have been saying that Prince Edward Island is in for a typical run-of-the-mill summer this year. Normally, a PEI summer (the months of June, July and August) averages 17.4 degrees Celsius and receives about 28 cm … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/688"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=688"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/688\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1353,"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/688\/revisions\/1353"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projects.upei.ca\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}