Title: Potential benefits of limiting global warming for the mitigation of temperature extremes in China

Journal: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00412-4

Abstract: In this study, we attempt to quantify the potential impacts of two global warming levels (i.e., 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C) on extreme temperature indices across China. The CMIP6 dataset is first evaluated against the CN05.1 observation for the historical period of 1995–2014. Then, future spatiotemporal patterns of changes in extreme temperature at two global warming levels under two shared socio-economic pathway scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) are further analyzed. Overall, China will experience more frequent and intense high temperature events, such as summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR), warm days (TX90p) and nights (TN90p). On the other hand, under the SSP585, the number of icing days and frost days is projected to decrease at two global warming levels, with the maximal days of decrease (exceeding 20 days) seen in the west of China. Our results suggest that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2.0 °C is beneficial to reduce extreme temperature risks. As temperature increases to 1.5 °C and then 2.0 °C above preindustrial levels, the most extreme temperature indices are expected to increase proportionately more during the final 0.5° than during the first 1.5° across most regions of China. For some warm indices, such as the warmest day (TXx), summer days (SU), and warm days (TX90p), the largest incremental changes (from 1.5° to 2.0°) tend to be found in the southwest. Under the SSP585, the incremental changes are similar to the change in the SSP245, but smaller magnitude and spatial extent.

The following paper about the emission reduction potential in China has been recently accepted for publication by Science of the Total Environment.

Guo, J., Z. Chen, W. Li, H. Jia, X. Liang, X. Wang, and Z. Bao. Evaluating emission reduction potential at the “30-60 Dual Carbon targets”. Science of the Total Environment, accepted on July 3, 2023.

More details will come soon once the paper is published.

Title: Coastal erosion and climate change: A review on coastal-change process and modeling

Journal: Ambio

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-023-01901-9

Abstract: Coastal erosion is a normal process of nature. However, the rate of coastal erosion, and the frequency and intensity of coastal flooding events, are now on the rise around the world due to the changing climate. Current responses to coastal erosion are primarily determined by site-specific factors, such as coastal elevation, coastal slope, coastal features, and historical coastline change rate, without a systematic understanding of the coastal-change processes in the context of climate change, including spatiotemporal changes in sea level, regional changes in wave climate, and sea ice coverage. In the absence of a clear understanding of the coastal-change processes, most of the current coastal responses have been built upon a risky assumption (i.e., the present-day coastal change will persist) and are not resilient to future climate change. Here, we conduct a literature review to summarize the latest scientific understanding of the coastal-change processes under climate change and the potential research gaps towards the prediction of future coastal erosion. Our review suggests that a coupled coastal simulation system with a nearshore wave model (e.g., SWAN, MIKE21, etc.) can play a critical role in both the short-term and long-term coastal risk assessment and protective measure development.

The following paper about the spatiotemporal trends in temperature and precipitation for Prince Edward Island has been recently accepted for publication by Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering.

Nawaz, R.A., X. Wang, S. Basheer, K. Sonier, T. Pang, and T. Adekanmbi. Spatiotemporal Trends in Temperature and Precipitation for Prince Edward Island over 1971-2020. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, accepted on July 3, 2023.

More details will come soon once the paper is published.