Title: Spatiotemporal and weather effects on the reproductive success of piping plovers on Prince Edward Island, Canada

Journal: Ecology and Evolution

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.11581

Abstract: Piping plovers (Charadrius melodus sp.) rank among North America’s most endangered shorebird species, facing compounding environmental challenges that reduce habitat availability and suppress recruitment and survival rates. Despite these challenges, research on the direct effects of climate variability and extremes on their breeding ecology remains limited. Here, we employ a spatiotemporal modelling approach to investigate how location, nest timing and weather conditions influence reproductive success rates in a small breeding population of C. m. melodus in Prince Edward Island (PEI), Canada from 2011 to 2023. Analysis of 40 years of monitoring records from a subset of nesting sites revealed that flooding and predation have been persistent sources of reproductive failures in this population, with unexplained losses increasing in recent years. Contrary to our hypotheses, our modelled results did not support a negative impact of extreme high temperatures and strong precipitation events on reproductive outcomes. Instead, we identified a positive effect of T_MAX and no effect of strong precipitation, perhaps due to limited exposure to extreme high temperatures (>32°C) and context-specific risks associated with precipitation-induced flooding. However, trends in regional climate change are likely to increase exposure to—and the influence of—such factors in the near future. Our models also identified spatiotemporal variability in apparent hatch success over the study period, as well as worse hatch outcomes across popular beachgoing regions and for delayed nesting attempts. While our results offer preliminary insights into factors affecting breeding success in this population, further research will be imperative to enhance understanding of constraints on recruitment. To this end, we encourage the collection and analysis of additional time-series data of prey populations, human activities, fine-scale weather data and predator/flood risks associated with each nest on PEI.

Title: China’s onshore wind energy potential in the context of climate change

Journal: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2024.114778

Abstract: China has great potential for developing renewable energy to achieve its carbon neutrality goals. Orderly development of renewable energy is essential to enhance resource utilization efficiency and ensure safety during the energy system transition process. This study presents a thorough assessment of China’s onshore wind power potential by considering the land suitability, the potential and temporal characteristics, and the impacts of climate change. The high-resolution maps combining wind resources with land conditions and climate scenarios are produced to provide insights into system planning, grid integration, and flexibility management. The results show that the capacity potential of onshore wind energy in China is 9.6 TW with an annual generation of 12.6 PWh, and 83 % of total capacity has a cost advantage with the levelized cost lower than the 60 $/MWh threshold. By comprehensively considering geographical, economic, and social criteria, around 8.1 % of the national territorial area is identified as the most suitable area for wind power development, primarily in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. The annual electricity generation from these areas can fulfill nearly 69 % of the nation’s electricity demand. Future climate change projections indicate a remarkable generalized drop by 18 % in the north and a slight increase by 7 % in the south under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, significant changes in wind resources are mostly within restricted areas, suggesting that future climate change would like to bring negative but limited impacts on wind power production in China.

Title: Assessing the social risks of flooding for coastal societies: a case study for Prince Edward Island, Canada

Journal: Environmental Research Communications

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad61c8

Abstract: With the worldwide growing threat of flooding, assessing flood risks for human societies and the associated social vulnerability has become a necessary but challenging task. Earlier research indicates that islands usually face heightened flood risks due to higher population density, isolation, and oceanic activities, while there is an existing lack of experience in assessing the island-focused flood risk under complex interactions between geography and socioeconomics. In this context, our study employs high-resolution flood hazard data and the principal component analysis (PCA) method to comprehensively assess the social risk of flood exposure and social vulnerability in Prince Edward Island (PEI), Canada, where limited research has been delivered on flood risk assessments. The findings reveal that exposed populations are closely related to the distribution of flood areas, with increasingly severe impact from current to future climate conditions, especially on the island’s north shore. Exposed buildings exhibit a concentrated distribution at different levels of community centers, with climate change projected to significantly worsen building exposure compared to population, possibly due to the urban agglomeration effect. The most populated cities and towns show the highest social vulnerabilities in PEI, and the results reflect a relatively less complex economic structure of islands. Recommendations for research and management in the coming stage include the necessity of particular climate actions, recognizing community centers as critical sites for flood hazard responses, and incorporating flood hazards into urban planning and management to mitigate the impacts of continuous urbanization on ecosystem services for flood prevention.

Title: Climate change impacts on oyster aquaculture – Part II: Impact assessment and adaptation measures

Journal: Environmental Research

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2024.119535

Abstract: The oyster aquaculture sector plays a major role in food security, providing a sustainable way to obtain food and livelihood for coastal and Island nations. Oysters are one of the preferred choices by aquaculturists because of their resilience to harsh climatic conditions. Nonetheless, climate change will continue to pose threats to its culture. Climate-induced hazards such as floods, storms, disease, and invasive species are some of the key factors limiting oyster production globally. A thriving aquaculture industry needs optimal conditions to maximize exploitation. Here, we continue with the review of the impacts of climate change on oyster aquaculture at the global scale, highlighting climate vulnerability assessment. We also propose a framework for modeling oyster responses to future climate scenarios. Furthermore, we explore the health implications of infected oysters on consumer’s health. We also identify knowledge gaps and challenges for sustainable oyster production. Additionally, we document mitigation and adaptation measures and future research directions.

The following paper about the spatiotemporal and weather effects on the reproductive success of piping plovers has been recently accepted for publication by Ecology and Evolution.

Guild, R. and X. Wang. Spatiotemporal and Weather Effects on the Reproductive Success of Piping Plovers on Prince Edward Island, Canada. Ecology and Evolution, accepted on July 14, 2024.

More details will come soon once the paper is published.