Title: Highwater Mark Collection after Post Tropical Storm Dorian and Implications for Prince Edward Island, Canada

Journal: Water

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223201

Abstract: Prince Edward Island (PEI), Canada has been experiencing the consequences of a rising sea level and intense storms on its coasts in recent years. The most recent severe event, Post Tropical Storm Dorian (Dorian), began impacting Prince Edward Island on 7 September 2019 and lasted for over 20 h until the morning of 8 September 2019. The measurement of highwater marks (HWM) from the storm was conducted between 25 September and 25 October 2019 using a high precision, survey grade methodology. The HWM measured included vegetation lines, wrack lines, beach, cliff, and dune morphological features, and tide gauge data at 53 locations in the Province along coastal areas that are exposed to high tides, storm surge, high winds, and wave runup. Photos were taken to provide evidence on the nature of the HWM data locations. The data reveal that Dorian caused extensive coastal floods in many areas along the North and South Coast of Prince, Queens and Western Kings Counties of Prince Edward Island. The floods reached elevations in excess of 3.4 m at some locations, posing threats to local infrastructure and causing damage to natural features such as sand dunes in these areas. The HWM data can provide useful information for community and emergency response organizations as plans are developed to cope with the rising sea level and increased frequency of highwater events as predicted by researchers. As Dorian has caused significant damage in several coastal areas in PEI, better planning using an enhanced storm forecasting and coastal flood warning system, in conjunction with flood stage values, could possibly have reduced the impacts of the storm in the impacted areas. This could help enhance public understanding of the potential impacts in local areas and how they can prepare and adapt for these events in the future.

The following paper about the impacts of the post-tropical storm Dorian on Prince Edward Island has been accepted for publication by Water.

Jardine, D., X. Wang, and A. Fenech. Highwater Mark Collection after Post Tropical Storm Dorian and Implications for Prince Edward Island, Canada. Water, accepted on November 8, 2021.

More details will come soon once the paper is published.

The following paper about future temperature projections for Canada has been accepted for publication by the Journal of Water and Climate Change.

Song, T., G. Huang, G. Wang, Y. Li, X. Wang, C. Lu, and Z. Shen. Bayesian model averaging of the RegCM temperature projections: a Canadian case study. Journal of Water and Climate Change, accepted on October 9, 2021.

More details will come soon once the paper is published.

The following paper about reference evapotranspiration projection under climate change has been accepted for publication by Water Resources Management.

Maqsood, J., A. A. Farooque, F. Abbas, T. Esau, X. Wang, B. Acharya, and H. Afzaal. Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Project Reference Evapotranspiration under Climate Change Scenarios. Water Resources Management, accepted on October 5, 2021.

More details will come soon once the paper is published.

Title: Long-Term Projection of Water Cycle Changes over China Using RegCM

Journal: Remote Sensing

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13193832

Abstract: The global water cycle is becoming more intense in a warming climate, leading to extreme rainstorms and floods. In addition, the delicate balance of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff affects the variations in soil moisture, which is of vital importance to agriculture. A systematic examination of climate change impacts on these variables may help provide scientific foundations for the design of relevant adaptation and mitigation measures. In this study, long-term variations in the water cycle over China are explored using the Regional Climate Model system (RegCM) developed by the International Centre for Theoretical Physics. Model performance is validated through comparing the simulation results with remote sensing data and gridded observations. The results show that RegCM can reasonably capture the spatial and seasonal variations in three dominant variables for the water cycle (i.e., precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff). Long-term projections of these three variables are developed by driving RegCM with boundary conditions of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results show that increased annual average precipitation and evapotranspiration can be found in most parts of the domain, while a smaller part of the domain is projected with increased runoff. Statistically significant increasing trends (at a significant level of 0.05) can be detected for annual precipitation and evapotranspiration, which are 0.02 and 0.01 mm/day per decade, respectively, under RCP4.5 and are both 0.03 mm/day per decade under RCP8.5. There is no significant trend in future annual runoff anomalies. The variations in the three variables mainly occur in the wet season, in which precipitation and evapotranspiration increase and runoff decreases. The projected changes in precipitation minus evapotranspiration are larger than those in runoff, implying a possible decrease in soil moisture.