Title: Real-time peak flow prediction based on signal matching
Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software
Abstract: Real-time peak flow prediction under heavy precipitation is critically important for flood emergency evacuation planning and management. In the case of emergency evacuation, every second matters as a slightly longer lead time could save more lives and reduce the associated social, economic, and health impacts. Here, we present a model (named SIGMA) based on the principle of signal matching to facilitate real-time peak flow prediction at sub-hourly scales (e.g., minutes to seconds). The SIGMA model divides the target watershed into small zones and the heavy precipitation falling into each zone is collected into a small water tank. As the water tank moves downstream and arrives in the watershed outlet, it will discharge the collected precipitation and generate a small single-pulse streamflow signal. By combining all small signals coming from all zones within the watershed, we will be able to generate a synthesized peak flow signal. The proposed model is applied to simulate the peak flow events observed in a real-world watershed to verify its effectiveness in real-time flood prediction. The results suggest that the presented model can reasonably predict three key aspects of a peak flow event, including the peak flow rate, the arrival time of peak flow, and the duration of the peak flow event. The proposed model is demonstrated to be effective in real-time flood prediction and can be used to support flood emergency evacuation planning and management.
Title: Effective Communication of Coastal Flood Warnings: Challenges and Recommendations
Abstract: With the increasing risk of coastal flooding facing coastal communities due to climate change, coastal flood warnings (CFWs) are expected to play a critical role in the protection of people and property to ensure communities’ sustainable development. However, as destructive coastal flooding hazards have caused considerable damage in recent years, the effectiveness of coastal flooding warnings could be questioned considering their objective of disaster risk reduction. Here, we deliver a review investigation of the current CFWs in the USA and Canada based on their setup and dissemination, and a case study of two representative coastal flooding events. Through this review, we found that collaboration between multi-level administration regarding CFW mechanisms has the potential to strengthen these mechanisms, improving their efficacy. We also found that CFWs presented in the media often lacked consideration of public acceptance and practicability in their reports, which may have affected the performance of these CFWs. Meanwhile, the technological limitations and uncertain public acceptance may also reduce the CFWs’ effectiveness in application. Accordingly, the media should further consider the understandability of CFW-related reports. Moreover, emergency information channels should be set in both traditional media and social media for accessible use by residents with different customs. Lastly, starting from the normalized prevention of coastal flood disaster, a consensus of crisis awareness should be built with which the social aspects of the defense against coastal flooding can be established for future environmental sustainability.
The following paper about a new model for real-time peak flow prediction based on signal matching has recently accepted for publication by Environmental Modelling & Software.
Wang, X., Q. V. Dau, and F. Aziz. Real-Time Peak Flow Prediction Based on Signal Matching. Environmental Modelling & Software, accepted on December 5, 2023.
More details will come soon once the paper is published.
Title: Climate change impacts on global potato yields: a review
Journal: Environmental Research: Climate
Abstract: Potatoes as a food crop contribute to zero hunger: Sustainable Development Goal 2. Over the years, the global potato supply has increased by more than double consumption. Changing climatic conditions are a significant determinant of crop growth and development due to the impacts of meteorological conditions, such as temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, on yields, placing nations under the threat of food insecurity. Potatoes are prone to climatic variables such as heat, precipitation, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), droughts, and unexpected frosts. A crop simulation model (CSM) is useful for assessing the effects of climate and various cultivation environments on potato growth and yields. This article aims to review recent literature on known and potential effects of climate change on global potato yields and further highlights tools and methods for assessing those effects. In particular, this review will explore (1) global potato production, growth and varieties; (2) a review of the mechanisms by which changing climates impact potato yields; (3) a review of CSMs as tools for assessing the impacts of climate change on potato yields, and (4) most importantly, this review identifies critical gaps in data availability, modeling tools, and adaptation measures, that lays a foundation for future research toward sustainable potato production under the changing climate.