Paper Published in Climate Dynamics

Title: Climate warming will not decrease perceived low-temperature extremes in China

Journal: Climate Dynamics

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4469-8

Abstract: Temperature-related health metrics are often determined not only by temperatures but also by multiple climate variables. Temperatures compounded by other climate variables are of significant concern in the assessment of climate change impacts on public health. Temperatures, wind speeds and their combined effects are investigated here for a comprehensive study of how measured temperatures, perceived temperature, and their related extremes will change in China under climate change conditions. Future projections of combined temperatures and wind speeds over China are generated through the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. Results indicate that temperatures can increase nearly 6 °C over China by the end of the twenty-first century from the baseline period (1976–2005) without considering the wind speed changes. However, by considering the combined effect of temperature and wind speed, the perceived temperatures over China are projected to decrease by 4.8 °C relative to the observed values in the baseline period. This unexpected drop in the future perceived temperatures suggests the projected warming is likely to be offset to a large extent by a potential increase in wind speed. This may be related to the RCM’s high-resolution making the thermal contrast distribute at finer scales. The mechanism behind this result needs to be further investigated to help understand the related physical processes and the associated uncertainties at regional scales. As for low-temperature extremes, China is projected to experience an apparent decrease in the frequency and duration of extreme cold events in the future compared to the baseline period without considering the combined wind chill effect. Considering the wind chill effect, an opposite trend for extreme cold events is detected, with an increase by 21% in the frequency of temperatures below − 20 °C.

Paper Accepted by Earth’s Future

The following paper about drought projections over Loess Plateau, China under future climate change has recently been accepted for publication by Earth’s Future:

Sun, C., G. Huang, Y. Fan, X. Zhou, C. Lu, and X. Wang. Drought occurring with hot extremes: changes under future climate change on Loess Plateau, China, Earth’s Future (AGU, SCI IF = 4.59), accepted on April, 2019.

More details will come soon once the paper is published.

Paper Published in Journal of Hydrometeorology

Title: Hydrologic Impacts of Ensemble-RCM-Projected Climate Changes in the Athabasca River Basin, Canada

Journal: Journal of Hydrometeorology

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0232.1

Abstract: In this study, the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) and the Regional Climate Model (RegCM) system as well as the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model were integrated into a general framework to investigate impacts of future climates on the hydrologic regime of the Athabasca River basin. Regional climate models (RCMs) including PRECIS and RegCM were used to develop ensemble high-resolution climate projections for 1979–2099. RCMs were driven by the boundary conditions from the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2 with Earth system configurations (HadGEM2-ES); the Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2); and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with MOM (GFDL-ESM2M) under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The ensemble climate simulations were validated through comparison with observations for 1984–2003. The RCMs project increases in temperature, precipitation, and wind speed under RCPs across most of the Athabasca River basin. Meanwhile, VIC was calibrated using the University of Arizona Shuffled Complex Evolution method (SCE-UA). The performance of the VIC model in replicating the characteristics of the observed streamflow was validated for 1994–2003. Changes in runoff and streamflow under RCPs were then simulated by the validated VIC model. The validation results demonstrate that the ensemble-RCM-driven VIC model can effectively reproduce historical climatological and hydrological patterns in the Athabasca River basin. The ensemble-RCM-driven VIC model shows that monthly streamflow is projected to increase in the 2050s and 2080s under RCPs, with notably higher flows expected in the spring for the 2080s. This will have substantial impacts on water balance on the Athabasca River basin, thus affecting the surrounding industry and ecosystems. The developed framework can be applied to other regions for exploration of hydrologic impacts under climate change.

Paper Accepted by Climate Dynamics

The following paper about regional climate modeling over China with PRECIS has recently been accepted for publication by Climate Dynamics:

Junhong Guo, Guohe Huang, Xiuquan Wang, and Yongping Li. Improved performance of a PRECIS ensemble in simulating near-surface air temperature over China (Manuscript ID: CLDY-D-18-00437), Climate Dynamics (Springer, SCI IF = 3.774), accepted on November 14, 2018.

More details will come soon once the paper is published.

Paper Accepted by Journal of Hydrometeorology

The following paper about hydroclimate modeling over the Athabasca River Basin, Canada has recently been accepted for publication by AMS’s Journal of Hydrometeorology:

Xiong Zhou, Guohe Huang, Joseph Piwowar, Yurui Fan, Xiuquan Wang, Zoe Li, and Guanhui Cheng. Hydrologic impacts of ensemble RCMs-projected climate changes in the Athabasca River Basin, Canada (Manuscript ID: JHM-D-17-0232), Journal of Hydrometeorology (American Meteorological Society, SCI IF = 3.790), accepted in November 2018.

More details will come soon once the paper is published.