Last week, Islanders were rudely awoken to the early arrival of snow with almost three centimetres (cm) measured at the Charlottetown airport. This signals the time for our annual winter weather predictions. A great hesitation hangs in the air as no-one predicted last winter’s record breaking snowfall of 551 cm. The Canadian Farmers’ Almanac deserves some congratulations as they predicted a colder and snowier winter than normal. But no-one had the audacity to predict a winter with 12 cm more than the previous record set in 1972. I have heard gossip around town about another record winter ahead just as severe as last year. Well, here is what the experts say.

Normally, a PEI winter (the months of December, January and February) averages -6 degrees Celsius and receives about 197 cm of snow and 122 millimetres of rain. Environment Canada uses climate models to forecast seasonal weather. Climate models are mathematical equations strung together that describe the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere. These equations are calculated using the largest computers in the country, known as supercomputers. Environment Canada forecasts the winter of 2016 (January, February, March) to be above normal or “warmer and wetter”. I must mention, however, that Environment Canada’s seasonal forecast models are accurate for Prince Edward Island only 40-50% of the time (which is not significantly better than chance, meaning flip a coin and you’ll have the same odds of getting the forecast correct). Environment Canada’s seasonal forecasts are accurate in Northern Quebec, the southern Yukon and Baffin Island, but here on PEI, not so well.

We all know people who swear by almanacs when forecasting the seasonal weather, so I took a look at three of them. The 2016 Canadian Farmers Almanac forecasts the winter of 2016 as “bitter cold and snowy”; the 2016 Harrowsmith’s Canadian Almanac says the winter of 2016 will be “snowier and wetter than normal” and temperatures “around normal”. The 2016 Old Farmer’s Almanac, the one we are most familiar with as it has been forecasting seasonal weather since its first issue in 1792 (the time of George Washington’s presidency), uses a “secret formula” kept tucked away in a black tin box at the Almanac offices in Dublin, New Hampshire. The Old Farmer’s Almanac makes claims of 80% accuracy of their results, but studies of their forecasts show no better over the long-term than about 50%. The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts the PEI winter climate of 2016 to be “warmer than normal” and “drier than normal”.

Dr. James Kinter, a leading climate scientist from George Mason University in the United States, was visiting PEI this past summer and predicted colder than normal temperatures this winter for PEI but less precipitation (rain and snow). Dr. Kinter based his predictions on the effects of a strong El Nino, that is, a temporary change of climate that happens every few years when winds shift in the Pacific Ocean along the equator, warming the water more than usual. These El Nino events trigger changing weather patterns globally.

My own research at the University of Prince Edward Island that examined over 140 years of weather observations in Charlottetown has shown that the climate has definitely gotten warmer and drier, especially over the past 10-15 years or so. And that’s where I put my forecast for the winter of 2015 – to continue the trend and be “warmer and drier”.

 Climate is variable, though – it goes up and down. Climate is nature’s merry-go-round so it is often difficult to predict the coming season even with supercomputers, secret formulas or historical trends. To emphasize this point, one of my graduate students, Eric Gilbert, flipped coins to see what Lady Fortune’s forecast for the winter of 2016 will be – the result being “colder and drier”. So there are many forecasts made but only one will be correct. Predictions are split down the middle as to whether the winter of 2016 will be warmer or colder, but the majority are for a drier or less snowier than normal winter for PEI. I can support the “less snowier” part of those predictions, but we’ll have to wait a few months to see who is right.

. The PEI Weather Trivia Calendar 2016 will be available in two weeks for purchase at book stores around town. This year’s calendar offers 366 all new weather stories for every day of the year; twelve beautiful full-colour PEI weather photographs; information about hurricanes on Prince Edward Island including their frequency, location and seasonality; stories of the winter of 2015, PEI’s snowiest in recorded history; historical PEI weather stories from the Charlottetown Conference (1864), when PEI joined Confederation (1873), and the PEI Land Purchase Act (1875); and much, much more!

Questions? Contact Adam Fenech at afenech@upei.ca or (902) 620-5220