With no Weather Channel on the television (or no television at all!) early European settlers to PEI used natural wildlife patterns to forecast the weather. Many of us call these weather myths or folklore, but they remain in our culture such as “it will be a tough winter ahead if the birds are migrating early” or “if squirrels’ tails are very bushy” or “if bees build their nests high in the trees.” Probably the most famous animal seasonal forecaster is the Groundhog. Every February 2, on Groundhog Day, a furry little creature crawls out of his hole, and predicts whether there will be an early spring, that is, warmer temperatures and no more snow. If he sees his shadow (meaning the weather is bright and clear), then six more weeks of winter are expected.

Why February 2? This weather myth comes originally from Candlemas Day marking the midpoint of winter – halfway between the shortest day of the year and the spring equinox. The original old rhyme goes:

If Candlemas Day be fair and bright, Winter will have another flight; But if Candlemas Day brings cloud and rain, Winter is gone and won’t come again.

Just substitute “Groundhog” for “Candlemas Day” and a new myth is born. Groundhogs have become celebrities across North America including Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania, Wiarton Willy in Ontario (an albino groundhog) and even our own Atlantic Region’s Shubenacadie Sam in Nova Scotia.

But don’t go writing the Premier and asking PEI to buy an albino groundhog for seasonal weather forecasting. I examined the weather records on February 2 over the past 30 years to determine what the success rate would be if PEI had its own resident Groundhog for seasonal weather forecasting. If February 2 was clear and sunny (based on precipitation and visibility records), then I checked to see if the next six weeks were wintery (average temperatures lower than -5.91 degrees Celsius from February 3 to March 16).

Unfortunately, matching Groundhog Day forecasts for Prince Edward Island with climate observations shows accuracy only about a third of the time, or once every three winters (37% to be exact). While scientific studies continue to show that the human ability to predict chaotic systems such as weather is limited to three weeks, we have not found any other means to forecast the weather further into the future (monthly or seasonally). Even with the help of our furry little friends.

Questions? Contact Adam Fenech at afenech@upei.ca or (902) 620-5220