The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global community’s scientific authority on climate matters, will release its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) next month. A leaked draft version has been appearing on websites for almost a year, and capturing headlines in the media.

What is the new IPCC report saying?

The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) released in 2007 concluded that warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Further support is given for this conclusion in the AR5 through new observations, longer data sets, and more paleo-climate information. Confidence is stronger that many changes in the climate system are significant, unusual or unprecedented. Widespread warming is observed across the surface of the Earth, as well as in the upper ocean. Each of the last three decades has been significantly warmer than all preceding decades since 1850.

According to the new report, there is now “incontrovertible evidence” that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased in the last 200 years, causing the average temperature of earth’s atmosphere and oceans to rise. So much evidence now exists that the draft says scientists are “virtually certain” human activity is the main driver of climate change, which means they are at least 99 per cent sure. In AR4, the figure was lower, 90 per cent, so scientific certainty has increased. Continue reading →

The Climate Research Lab at the University of Prince Edward Island is offering a new and valuable tool for researchers who require climate projections for anywhere on the planet. The lab has downloaded raw data from 40 global climate models and translated, analyzed, verified, and converted it into a usable dataset for researchers.

“This is the world’s most advanced science, and will be part of next year’s Fifth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),” said Dr. Adam Fenech, director of the Climate Research Lab. “If researchers require projections that are monthly, seasonal, or annual over the next century, we can provide them.”

Watch Dr. Fenech explain:

Dr. Fenech has worked extensively in the area of climate change since the IPCC First Assessment Report in 1988. He has edited seven books on climate change, most recently on climate impacts and adaptation science. Dr. Fenech has worked at Harvard University researching the history of the science/policy interfaces of climate change. He has represented Canada at international climate negotiating sessions, written climate policy speeches for Canadian environment ministers, and authored Canadian reports on climate change to the United Nations. Dr. Fenech has taught at the University of Toronto as well as the Smithsonian Institution for over 15 years, and lectures regularly at universities across Canada and around the world. He is presently the director of UPEI’s own Climate Research Lab that conducts, facilitates, and hosts research and science on the vulnerability, impacts and adaptation to past and future climate change. As part of the IPCC, he was co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.

Researchers can get in touch with Dr. Fenech at climate@upei.ca. Follow along with the research of the UPEI Climate Research Lab at upei.ca/climate.

Barry Murray of the North Kensington Watershed sent me this articulate article on how everyday Islanders can help track the climate changes that are occurring in our backyards and neighbourhoods. This information is valuable to have now but will be especially valuable in the years to come. With his permission, I share with you this call to action.

Our climate is changing, of that there is no reasonable doubt.  A few who really like to argue will continue to debate why it is happening, but, it is happening.  During the winter of 1920, there were 20 days below -20 degrees C.  In 2011 there were none.  These are extremes, but they represent the undeniable trend that our climate, especially during winter months, is warming.

Dr. Adam Fenech is presently the director of the Climate Lab at the University of Prince Edward Island.  His research includes collecting and analyzing data from our local environment here on PEI.  Dr. Fenech (who shares a 2007 Nobel Prize with those who worked with him on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) states that some of the best indicators of how our climate is changing are observable in our own neighborhoods.  Plants are flowering or budding earlier.  Wild geese are showing up earlier in the spring and staying later in the fall.  Spring peepers, and other frogs, can be heard at earlier dates.  The first date when farmers can get on the land, plant potatoes, harvest, see blight or insect pests:  these dates are all gradually changing, and the trend is earlier.  The opening day of lobster season in years past was often delayed due to ice in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.  It was quite common that there would be a delay of opening roughly 50% of the time in years past.  In the past 20 years, there have been few if any delays due to ice cover.

There are two general ways that we can contribute to collecting information on our local changing climate. 

First, as Islanders, we are a people who keep great records.  There are diaries that we, or people we know, have kept that have incredibly valuable climate related information.  There are diaries, some dating back for several decades, that have recorded the first day on the land, the last frost in the spring, the first frost in the fall, the first day that smelts were caught, setting day for lobster season, the first day mackerel were caught, first day that apple or cherry blossoms were seen, or spring peepers, migrating birds, Colorado beetle, dandelions and other plants blooming, potato blight, natural ice skating rinks, notable storms or other weather events… there are many possibilities of information that has been recorded that can have huge value to those who study our changing climate closely.

The second way we can contribute is to observe from this time forward those things in our lives that indicate change in our climate.  There are many ways of doing this.  A good one is by using the website www.naturewatch.ca .  There are very good instructions and recording methods for observing ice, plants, frogs, and even worms.  It may sound a little off the wall, but if these observations are made carefully, over a long period, in several locations, they will provide high   quality information that will be more meaningful than simple temperate data. 

Why is this important?  Why should we bother digging through old diaries or recording new information?  It may come down to how well we may hope to adjust and cope with changing climate in years to come.  How will crops adapt to a warming climate?  How will new pests affect our farms and gardens?  How will the fisheries change, and how will the fishing sectors adapt?  Will longer seasons, possibly with more stormy weather, be a benefit to tourism?  What kind of homes should we build, or improvements should we make?

If you have information, or would like to contribute, please help with this valuable research by contacting Kensington North Watersheds at kensigntonnorthwatershed@gmail.com, or 432-4988.  You can also contact Dr. Fenech directly at  afenech@upei.ca. 

Last week marked the 25th anniversary of the Toronto Conference, a “perfect storm” of events that launched the issue of climate change onto the global policy agenda. The impacts of climate on our economy and ecology keep increasing, and the negotiations for an international treaty to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change have stalled. So what is the way forward?

It is increasingly clear that our past greenhouse gas emissions and the energy infrastructure we have installed commit the planet to ever increasing temperatures, on the order of 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade for the next few decades and at least 2.5 degrees Celsius for the rest of the century – even if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases now. With continued emissions, the destabilizing of the global climate could worsen to reach a “point of no return.” The conditions on planet Earth could, as the 1988 Toronto conference statement suggested, place the survival of human civilization in doubt. Despite clear evidence of the urgency of determinedly tackling the threat of climate change, global international diplomacy has so far failed to meet the challenge.

So what can we do? Continue reading →

Last week marked the 25th anniversary of the Toronto Conference, a “perfect storm” of events that launched the issue of climate change onto the global policy agenda. So what happened in international environmental diplomacy over the past 25 years?

After three years of deliberations following the Toronto Conference, the International Negotiating Committee (INC) on climate change drafted a text to be signed in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in June 1992 as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The objective of the treaty is to “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” The treaty itself set no binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions for individual countries and contains no enforcement mechanisms. Instead, the treaty provides a framework for negotiating specific international treaties (called “protocols”) that may set binding limits on greenhouse gases. Presently, 195 Parties have signed and ratified the UNFCCC. Continue reading →

Last week marked the 25th anniversary of the Toronto Conference, a “perfect storm” of events that launched the issue of climate change onto the global policy agenda. So where are we today – 25 years later?

Global Carbon Dioxide Levels Continually Rising

The global level of carbon dioxide, the most important heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere, passed a long-feared milestone in May of this year reaching a concentration not seen on the earth for millions of years. Scientific instruments show that carbon dioxide levels had reached an average daily level above 400 parts per million (ppm) – a sobering reminder that decades of efforts to bring human-produced emissions under control are faltering. For the entire period of human civilization, roughly 8,000 years, the carbon dioxide level was relatively stable near 280 ppm. But the burning of fossil fuels has caused a 41 percent increase in the heat-trapping gas since the Industrial Revolution, and scientists say the climate is beginning to react, though they expect far larger changes in the future. Scientists say the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide level symbolizes that so far humans have failed miserably in tackling this problem.  A continuing rise could be catastrophic. It means humans are quickly losing the possibility of keeping the climate below what people thought were possibly tolerable thresholds.

Climate Science More Certain

In the past twenty-five years, the science has become more certain, the threats more clearly understood, and the need to reduce emissions more urgent. Continue reading →

Last week marked the 25^th anniversary of the Toronto Conference that launched the issue of climate change onto the global policy agenda. Sponsored by the government of Canada, the conference, “Our Changing Atmosphere: Implications for Global Security,” brought together hundreds of scientists and policymakers from across the globe to Toronto with the goal of initiating international action on climate change. Starting on June 30, 1988, international scientists and policy makers met in Toronto to discuss emerging concerns about global atmospheric issues including acid rain, stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. While the previous decade had seen discussions of both global cooling and warming, the Toronto Conference was the “perfect storm” of events to launch the issue of global warming onto the international policy agenda.

i. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) research scientist Dr. James Hansen told a US Congressional committee on June 24, 1988 that he was 99 percent certain that a warming trend being witnessed was not a natural variation but was caused by a buildup of carbon dioxide and other artificial gases in the atmosphere. This received international media attention including the influential newspaper, the New York Times. Continue reading →

To register, email climate@upei.ca

Planning for Risks under a Changing Climate

3 May 2013 

Sponsored by the Province of Prince Edward Island, the Government of Canada and the University of Prince Edward Island

Atlantic Veterinary College (AVC) Lecture Theatre A, University of Prince Edward Island

8:30 Introduction and background for the session – Erin Taylor, PEI Dept of Environment, Labour and Justice
8:45 Welcome – Shauna Sullivan Curley, Deputy Minister, PEI Dept of Environment, Labour and Justice (invited); Robert Gilmour Jr., Vice-President Research, University of Prince Edward Island (invited)
9:00 City of Charlottetown Waterfront Planning – Hope Parnham, City of Charlottetown
9:30 How we can use Planning Tools to Engage the Community in Planning for Resiliency – Sebastien Doiron, Beaubassin Planning Commission, New Brunswick
10:00 Planning for Climate Change Adaptation – Penny Henneberry, Planner, Municipality of the County of Cumberland, Nova Scotia
10:30  break
11:00 From Culverts to Roads to Bridges – the need to plan for infrastructure at Risk – Patrick Mazerolle, New Brunswick Department of Transportation and Infrastructure
11:30 Storm Water, Sanitary Sewers and Infrastructure – Serge Dupuis, Town of Dieppe, New Brunswick
12:00 – Assessing Risks for Vulnerable Infrastructure – Jacques Paynter, AMEC Consulting
12:30 Lunch
13:30 A Tool to Assess Coastal Infrastructure Relevant to the Fishing & Aquaculture Industries in ACAS Study Areas – Vincent Leys, CBCL Limited
14:00 Climate Change Videos – Ben Phillips, Fundy Biosphere Reserve
15:00 Concluding Remarks – Adam Fenech, Climate Research Lab, University of Prince Edward Island

I was asked in November last year to provide a forecast for the winter of 2013 for the province of Prince Edward Island. Normally, a PEI winter (the months of December, January and February) averages -6 degrees Celsius and receives about 41cm of rain or snow. So first, I went to Environment Canada which uses climate models to forecast seasonal weather. Climate models are mathematical equations strung together that describe the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere. These equations are calculated using the largest computers in the country, known as supercomputers. Environment Canada forecast the winter of 2013 to be “warmer and wetter”. I must mention, however, that Environment Canada’s seasonal forecast models are accurate for Prince Edward Island only 40-50% of the time (which is not significantly better than chance, meaning flip a coin and you’ll have the same odds of getting the forecast correct). Environment Canada’s seasonal forecasts are accurate in Northern Quebec, the southern Yukon and Baffin Island, but here on PEI, not so well. Continue reading →

With no Weather Channel on the television (or no television at all!) early European settlers to PEI used natural wildlife patterns to forecast the weather. Many of us call these weather myths or folklore, but they remain in our culture such as “it will be a tough winter ahead if the birds are migrating early” or “if squirrels’ tails are very bushy” or “if bees build their nests high in the trees.” Probably the most famous animal seasonal forecaster is the Groundhog. Every February 2, on Groundhog Day, a furry little creature crawls out of his hole, and predicts whether there will be an early spring, that is, warmer temperatures and no more snow. If he sees his shadow (meaning the weather is bright and clear), then six more weeks of winter are expected.

Why February 2? This weather myth comes originally from Candlemas Day marking the midpoint of winter – halfway between the shortest day of the year and the spring equinox. The original old rhyme goes:

If Candlemas Day be fair and bright, Winter will have another flight; But if Candlemas Day brings cloud and rain, Winter is gone and won’t come again.

Just substitute “Groundhog” for “Candlemas Day” and a new myth is born. Groundhogs have become celebrities across North America including Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania, Wiarton Willy in Ontario (an albino groundhog) and even our own Atlantic Region’s Shubenacadie Sam in Nova Scotia. Continue reading →