Headlines across the country have been saying that Prince Edward Island is in for a typical run-of-the-mill summer this year. Normally, a PEI summer (the months of June, July and August) averages 17.4 degrees Celsius and receives about 28 cm of rain. This represents the “climate normal” or the average of 30 years of data, in this case the most recent climate normal titled 1981-2010.  Last year’s summer (2013) was 0.5 degrees Celsius warmer than “normal”, and 30 percent drier than “normal”. But what about this year?

The Weather Network has stated that: “We don’t expect an especially hot summer” in 2014. Environment Canada agrees. Using climate models, that is, mathematical equations of the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere strung together and calculated using the largest computers in the country (known as supercomputers) to forecast seasonal weather, Environment Canada forecasts the summer of 2014 to be “normal” or no change from the climate normal above. I must mention, however, that Environment Canada’s seasonal forecast models are accurate for Prince Edward Island only 40-50% of the time (which is not significantly better than chance, meaning flip a coin and you’ll have the same odds of getting the forecast correct). Environment Canada’s seasonal forecasts are accurate in Northern Quebec, the southern Yukon and Baffin Island; but here on PEI, not so much. Continue reading →

Dr. Adam Fenech, director of UPEI’s Climate Research Lab, invites you to join in discussing the risks to homes, cottages and roads from coastal erosion and sea level rise in your community.

Dr. Fenech and staff will be visiting communities across the island in July demonstrating the Climate Lab’s latest innovation – CLIVE (CoastaL Impacts Visualization Environment) – a video game that simulates rising seas and increased coastal erosion on Prince Edward Island.

Attendees will be encouraged to share ideas on how best to deal with their vulnerability to sea level rise, and, through CLIVE, to view local areas that may be impacted.

Sessions will run from 7-8 PM. Drinks and light snacks will be provided

Victoria – Old School House (Victoria Rd.) – Tuesday, July 8th|
Souris – St. Mary’s Parish Hall – Wednesday, July 9th
Abram-Village – Rec Centre – Tuesday, July 15th
Montague – Wellness Centre – Thursday, July 17th
North Rustico – Lion’s Club – Tuesday, July 22nd
Charlottetown – Beaconsfield Carriage House – Wednesday, July 23rd
Summerside – Silver Fox Curling Club – Thursday, July 24th
Alberton – Community Centre – Wednesday, July 30th

Jointly sponsored by the PEI Department of Environment, Labour and Justice, and the Climate Research Lab at the University of Prince Edward Island.

By Dr. Adam Fenech, UPEI Climate Research Lab

The PEI winter of 2014 brought the most snow in 42 years, and colder than average temperatures. But why? I have never seen so much discussion about the polar vortex, nor the blame it received for our cold and snowy winter. There was also discussion later in the season about climate change being the possible cause of our severe winter. So who is to blame? The easy answer is climate variability – climate is nature’s carousel that goes up and down so we should experience variations in our winters – some warm and dry, and others cold and snowy. But variability is the easy answer and too general to explain the winter of 2014.

Some people blame the polar vortex for our most recent cold and snowy winter. The northern polar vortex is a large region of air that circles the North Pole (counter-clockwise) in the high atmosphere dripping high colder air to the surface of the Earth. The northern polar vortex is kept in place by the northern jet stream, a west-to-east warmer wind that flows around the Earth between the upper and lower atmospheres driven by the differences between the cold north and the warmer south. Sometimes the northern jet stream meanders like a stream causing a piece of the polar vortex to break off and plunge to the surface over Canada bringing cold air and snow. This happened in Manitoba and influenced our Atlantic region. But is the polar vortex to blame for this winter’s cold? It is more a symptom than the cause. Continue reading →

By Dr. Adam Fenech, Director, UPEI Climate Research Lab

Last week PEI saw a “mini White Juan” storm that brought 48.5 centimetres (cm) of snow measured at Charlottetown airport.  White Juan refers to the brutal blizzard of February 19, 2004 nicknamed after Hurricane Juan, a storm that hit PEI on September 29, 2003 with wind gusts up to 140 km/h causing flooding, uprooting of trees and infrastructure damage in the Charlottetown Harbour. White Juan brought 120 km/h winds and 74.4 cm of snow at Charlottetown which remains the maximum 24-hour total since records began. Last week’s storm was a mini-version with lighter winds (98 km/h) and less snow, but it still reminds us of our vulnerability to extreme cold weather. Good preparations and planning helped PEI  emerge without too many tragedies this past week. Community leaders should be commended for their work in getting the message out to take this storm seriously.

Last week’s storm seems to have been one of many during this particularly cold and stormy winter of 2014. Over the past thirty years, there has been a definite downward trend in the amount of snow that PEI has received, but not this winter. We have to go back 42 years to find a year with more snow. Continue reading →

By Dr. Adam Fenech, Director, Climate Lab, University of Prince Edward Island

The challenges to Prince Edward Island in addressing climate change are many – perhaps the most important being the impact of coastal erosion through storm surges and high water levels. We know, for example, that shorelines across PEI often experience erosion – a wearing away of the land by water, waves, ice, and wind. It is anticipated that climate change will bring more intense storms, rising seas and reduced sea ice coverage (which normally protects the shore from wind and waves). Coastal erosion will continue and likely become more severe, threatening public and private infrastructure at great economic cost. But by how much?

Last week, the Climate Research Lab at UPEI, in partnership with Dr. Nick Hedley of Simon Fraser University, launched a new tool for understanding the threat of coastal erosion, sea level rise and storm surges to Prince Edward Island. CoastaL Impacts Visualization Environment, known as CLIVE, is a video game programmed by two of our students – Alex Chen and Andrew Doiron – that uses a digital elevation model (DEM) together with high resolution aerial photos to provide a three dimensional landscape to depict scenarios of past and future environmental change. Yes, a video game; albeit a serious one. CLIVE is an example of an emerging approach to activating communities to respond to future climate changes through the use of visualization techniques.

CLIVE allows users to fly over the Island using a game controller, and to trigger the raising or lowering of sea levels to examine which areas of PEI are vulnerable to storm surges and flooding. Also immersed in the science that built CLIVE are the results from coastal change studies conducted over the past few years. Continue reading →

Join us on Tuesday February 11 at 7pm for the UPEI Climate Lab Lecture Series as Dr. Adam Fenech, director of the Climate Lab, presents results from recent coastal erosion research projects conducted on Prince Edward Island. The change in PEI’s coastline has been measured mapped and analyzed from 1968 to 2010. Buildings, roads and bridges have been assessed as to their vulnerability to future coastal erosion and sea level rise. Come see how our communities will be affected. Dr. Fenech will present the results of this research including the unveiling of a new interactive 3-D geo-visualization platform known as CLIVE. CLIVE allows stakeholders to interactively explore PEI’s coastline, and scenarios of future climate change, sea-level rise and storm surges. The presentation will take place in the amphitheatre of UPEI’s Duffy Science Centre. For more information, contact the Climate Lab at 902 620-5221 or climate@upei.ca.

Mark your calendars to attend a science symposium to communicate current research and science activities on the Atlantic Region’s aquaculture industry concerning our changing climate. It will be held on March 11 at the University of Prince Edward Island.

There is no fee to attend the seminar, but space is limited and online pre-registration is required.  See attached file for more details and a link to online registration.

Agenda – Climate Change and Aquaculture

By Dr. Adam Fenech, Director, Climate Lab, University of Prince Edward Island

It seems as if PEI has been battered by one storm after another over the past month – heavy snow, freezing rain and strong winds. On the final day of December 2013, we take the tally of snow, ice and rain for the month and see how it stacks up against previous Decembers. So how bad was it?

The verdict is in. For overall total precipitation, December 2013 saw about 215 millimeters (mm) of both rain and snow almost twice the new climate normal (117 mm or the average from 1981 to 2010). It is the December with the most precipitation in almost 25 years when 260 mm fell in December 1990.

Looking at just the snow, over 100 centimeters (cm) fell this December, the most since 2007 when 150 cm fell. This year’s December snowfall was almost double the new climate normal of 65 cm (the average from 1981 to 2010), and certainly much more than December 2012 or the few years prior.

Why is snow important? Continue reading →

By Dr. Adam Fenech, Director, Climate Lab, University of Prince Edward Island

Another year has gone by and it’s time to talk about Prince Edward Island’s top three weather stories of 2013. This past year wasn’t such a record breaking year as 2012, but it reminded us that the weather plays an important part of our everyday lives. Every year brings stories of weather no matter where you are, and Prince Edward Island is no different. Here are my top three weather stories for 2013, and how they affected PEI.

Number 3 – Good Weather for Potato Harvest

Finally, a good weather story in the top three – 2013 was a good weather year for the potato harvest. While the cold wet spring delayed planting by about a week, and summer climate conditions produced only an average potato crop this year, there were fewer cases of late blight reported on PEI’s potato crop, an unusual situation due to the hot and dry temperatures. Potato blight is a fungus that can be devastating for potato crops. More importantly, potato growers across PEI basked in some of the finest weather in years for the autumn harvest, scooping up clean white potatoes instead of mud splotched ones – red mud of course. The autumn climate was so co-operative that most of the province’s potatoes — roughly 85,000 acres — were in the warehouses before Halloween.

Number 2 – Record Extreme Heat in both Winter and Summer

This year was one of record extreme heat yet again, but this time in both winter and summer seasons. Continue reading →

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global community’s scientific authority on climate matters, will release its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) next month. A leaked draft version has been appearing on websites for almost a year, and capturing headlines in the media.

What is the new IPCC report saying?

The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) released in 2007 concluded that warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Further support is given for this conclusion in the AR5 through new observations, longer data sets, and more paleo-climate information. Confidence is stronger that many changes in the climate system are significant, unusual or unprecedented. Widespread warming is observed across the surface of the Earth, as well as in the upper ocean. Each of the last three decades has been significantly warmer than all preceding decades since 1850.

According to the new report, there is now “incontrovertible evidence” that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased in the last 200 years, causing the average temperature of earth’s atmosphere and oceans to rise. So much evidence now exists that the draft says scientists are “virtually certain” human activity is the main driver of climate change, which means they are at least 99 per cent sure. In AR4, the figure was lower, 90 per cent, so scientific certainty has increased. Continue reading →